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In a presentation now being delivered to NASA employees across the country,
the space agency is providing details of how it plans to implement the
broad new space goals announced by President Bush last week. The presentation,
a copy of which was obtained by MSNBC.com, includes a list of guiding
principles, specific program plans and details of budgetary rearrangements.
“The shift in funding reflects the priority of the new national
vision for human and robotic exploration of the solar system and beyond,”
the report explains.
It also directly challenges the most widespread criticism of the new plans,
which is that they are too expensive. The report stresses that NASA;s
annual budget (about 0.7 percent of the federal budget), at about 15 cents
per person per day, is equivalent to the cost of "a month of cable"
or "a family trip to a movie".
Without Bush’s new “exploration vision,” the report
claims it was likely that next year’s budget “would have been
considerably reduced” and would have lost even more ground through
inflation. Instead, NASA now expects the budget to increase by 5 percent
per year over the next three years, and thereafter at about 2 percent
annually to cover inflation.
NASA Administrator Sean O'Keefe said Wednesday that the agency's proposed
budget for fiscal year 2005 would be $16.2 billion, which is a 5.6 percent
increase over the 2004 budget of $15.4 billion. The proposed increase
for FY 2006 would be 4.8 percent, with a 4.7 percent increase in FY2007
before dropping to a 1.5 percent increase in FY 2008.
Plans to retire the space shuttle in 2010 and develop of the replacement
spacecraft, the “Crew Exploration Vehicle” no later than 2014,
have already been widely publicized. However, contrary to published reports,
NASA shows no intention of canceling the International Space Station anytime
soon.
The report shows current funding levels for ISS continuing through fiscal
year 2016, while NASA plans to “refocus research to exploration
factors affecting astronaut health”. The presentation adds that
NASA also will “acquire crew and cargo systems, as necessary, during
and after availability of shuttle.”
The biggest budgetary shift is scheduled for fiscal years 2010 to 2012,
when annual space shuttle spending drops from $4.5 billion to zero and
the allocation to “exploration missions” doubles. A near-billion-dollar
category called “ISS Transport” continues for years beyond
this date.
Sustainable and affordable strategies
Exploration of the solar system, says the presentation, will be guided
by “compelling scientific and societal importance.” In keeping
with already-established mission statements, “NASA exploration missions
will seek profound answers to questions of our origins, whether life exists
beyond Earth, and how we could live on other worlds.”
This exploration will be shaped by recent discoveries and will focus on
"likely habitable environments" including Mars, the moons of
Jupiter, and telescopic searches “for Earth-like planets and habitable
environments around other stars.”
Both robots and astronauts will be used in this effort, the presentation
stresses, “leveraging the capabilities of each where useful.”
Robotic probes will go first, test new technology, gather science data,
and identify usable resources. Astronauts in turn will “conduct
in-depth research, direct and upgrade advanced robotic explorers, prepare
space resources, and demonstrate new exploration capabilities.”
“Where advantageous,” the presentation continues, “NASA
will also make use of destinations like the moon and near-Earth asteroids
to test and demonstrate new exploration capabilities.” A new wave
of robotic explorers will begin to explore the moon by 2008, with human
expeditions planned “in the 2015 – 2020 timeframe.”
This will not be Apollo redux, however. Rather than “flags and footprints,”
this new wave of exploration is aimed at developing "sustainable,
affordable, and flexible strategies,” the report says. “The
vision is not about one-time events and, thus, costs will be reduced to
maintain the affordability of the vision.”
While NASA’s next budget, due Feb. 6, will include some realignment
of funding, the biggest re-allocations will not occur until the FY06 budget,
which will “address uncertainties in implementing the vision.”
Ultimate human missions to Mars are not given a specific schedule. “Timing
of human missions to Mars,” the presentation explains, “will
be based on available budgetary resources, experience and knowledge gained
from lunar exploration, discoveries by robotic spacecraft at Mars and
other solar system locations, and development of required technologies
and know-how.”
Many of these goals are not yet within existing capabilities, the presentation
acknowledges, laying out a plan for NASA to develop new technology in
the areas of “power generation, propulsion, life support, and other
key capabilities required to support more distant, more capable, and/or
longer duration human and robotic exploration”.
Unmanned probes to continue
The presentation stresses that the new space vision does not mean that
other unmanned space probes will be cancelled. NASA will continue to “conduct
robotic exploration across the solar system for scientific purposes and
to support human exploration.” In particular, it will “explore
Jupiter’s moons, asteroids, and other bodies to search for evidence
of life, to understand the history of the solar system, and to search
for resources.”
This new vision, the presentation states, benefits the nation because
it “makes needed decisions to secure long-term U.S. space leadership,
encourages innovation and strengthens [the] industrial base, [and] pursues
compelling science and inspires the next generation of explorers.”
The plan also “refocuses NASA”, by establishing an “exciting
long-term vision” and by integrating robotic and human programs
“around focused science goals”. It also responds to recommendations
of the Columbia Accident Investigation Board concerning the need for a
new long-term space goal and a practical plan to manage the end of the
space shuttle program.
No mention is made in this presentation of a theme repeatedly stressed
in President Bush’s speech, that of international cooperation and
partnership. Nor is any allusion made to joint work with other U.S. government
agencies involved in space technology.
However, the presentation promises that a detailed “Exploratory
Vision Document”, linking the plans with actual programs, will be
released with the FY 2005 budget on Feb 2.
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